The first is the need to restore confidence in the global multilateral institutions in which America has a large stake and influence. In which of these two worlds we will live by mid-century depends on how the United States copes with two key challenges. Over time, the United States would be pushed from the center of global economic management and become one of several competing power hubs. There are already plenty of signs that this is exactly what India and China are doing. Gradually, the two countries may build their own networks of trade and investment agreements, set up regional institutions and build global webs that largely exclude the United States. Rather, India and China may start disengaging from international institutions where the United States is most influential. This would not happen overnight, and it would most likely not take the form of a direct military challenge to the United States. On the other hand, the rise of India and China could weaken America’s global influence. If invested wisely, these should fuel growth at home and help America keep its technological, scientific and military edge. corporations and investors, by taking advantage of cheap Chinese and Indian labor, will continue to reap handsome profits. On one hand, the rise of India and China could reinforce American economic and military influence. To understand the choices we face, we must first think of the rise of India and China in two ways. If we are prepared to make the difficult choices needed to keep the United States engaged in the world and at the center of the world economy, then the rise of India and China should be welcomed as good news.īut if we fail at these challenges, the coming decades will be the story of how American influence was eclipsed and of how the United States lost its ability to manage the world economy. influence will depend largely on how the United States adapts to the changing economic landscape. What will these changes mean for American influence in the world? Whether the rise of these two countries strengthens or weakens U.S. The entry of these two giants into the world economy has nearly doubled the total amount of workers in the global system, creating new opportunities for investors, lowering labor costs and increasing competition for resources.Īccording to projections by Goldman Sachs, an investment bank, China will replace the United States as the world’s largest economy by 2050, with India following closely behind in third place. The rise of India and China, we are told, is shaking the world economy and will change the economic opportunities of the next generation.
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